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bug(otel): telemetry_of correlation draws 0 edges (0% coverage despite 1.5M+ OTLP rows) #610

Description

@Necmttn

Surfaced by the new ax otel view (#609):

correlation: 0/1,501 sessions linked (0%)  [14d]

telemetry_of has 0 edges across 5,355 sessions, despite 16,700 claude metric points + 1,546,147 codex log events in the graph. The ingest-finish correlation pass (matches session.id ↔ otel session_id/conversation.id, Effect.ignore best-effort) is producing nothing.

Likely causes to check:

  • session-id shape mismatch: otel_*.session_id stores a bare uuid (see bareSession in telemetry-rollup.ts), but the correlation pass may compare against a session:<uuid> record id form, or vice-versa.
  • codex key is conversation.id not session.id — is the codex branch of the pass mapping it?
  • the pass may be silently swallowing an error via Effect.ignore.

Impact: all telemetry-enriched insights (churn otlp_cost_usd, fragility downstream_cost_usd, friction OTLP cost, skills weighted recovery latency) are dark because the edge they traverse is empty. ax otel is the diagnostic surface for confirming the fix.

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