marginal-buyer-payoff-bridge.md

Marginal Buyer / Payoff Bridge

This bridge is the actionability analysis core for "can I buy?", "should I sell?", "can I add?", "can I chase?", "can I buy the dip?" and similar participation questions.

It is not a trade signal module. It answers the research question that must come before actionability risk control:

• who is the next marginal buyer or seller
• why that marginal participant has not fully acted yet
• what variable can force repricing from the current price
• how much of that payoff appears already priced in
• what evidence would confirm or invalidate the bridge

After this bridge, apply actionability-risk-control.md. If the user provides a real position, route through the position or portfolio loop before making position-level implications.

Trigger

Load this bridge when the prompt asks whether to buy, sell, add, trim, chase, buy a dip, exit, hold after a move, or participate around an event.

Examples:

• "can I buy X now?"
• "should I sell X now?"
• "can I add after the print?"
• "is this dip buyable?"
• "can I still chase after this move?"
• "target price reached; still buyable?"

If the prompt is time-sensitive (now, today, latest, intraday, premarket, after-hours), run the live-data policy before judging price context.

Routing Position

Use this bridge as a lens, not as a standalone heavy loop.

actionability prompt
-> intent intake and decision pressure gate
-> live-data gate when time-sensitive
-> current thesis / source notes / event context
-> marginal buyer / payoff bridge
-> actionability risk-control
-> position-review or portfolio loop if real holdings are provided

Default route mapping:

context	route
no real position data	thesis_system_update or current research route, then actionability bridge
real single-position data	position_review with this bridge as a required lens
real portfolio or risk-budget context	portfolio_construction_review with this bridge for object-level actionability
options, shorting, hedges, pair trades, margin or leverage	also load instrument-strategy-gate.md

Payoff Source Taxonomy

Use these labels as research descriptors. Do not invent machine-facing action tokens.

payoff_source	meaning
earnings_revision	revenue, margin, EPS, FCF or unit economics expectations can move
guidance_revision	company or consensus guidance can reset expectations
macro_discount_rate	rate, dollar, credit spread or risk premium changes drive valuation
macro_growth_liquidity	growth, liquidity, inflation or policy regime changes drive flows
value_mean_reversion	asset is priced below a defensible normalized value anchor
multiple_rerating	market may assign a higher or lower multiple to the same fundamentals
event_probability_repricing	regulatory, legal, M&A, product, trial or policy probability changes
positioning_short_cover	short interest, underweight, crowding or forced cover drives demand
flow_rebalance_passive	index, ETF, benchmark, factor or systematic flow changes
capital_return_carry	dividends, buybacks, yield or carry become material to return
balance_sheet_risk_repricing	liquidity, leverage, covenant or solvency risk changes
asset_value_repricing	owned assets, reserves, IP, real estate or sum-of-parts value resets
technical_liquidity_only	price action or liquidity can move price, but thesis evidence is weak
unknown_source_gap	payoff source cannot be stated from current evidence

Multiple payoff sources are allowed, but state whether they are independent or the same variable expressed twice.

Buy / Add / Chase Questions

For buy-side actionability, answer these before assigning participation posture:

field	question
marginal_buyer	Who is the next likely buyer: fundamental, growth, value, macro, event, passive, short-cover, retail, or systematic flow?
payoff_source	What is the marginal return source from here?
repricing_trigger	What evidence, event or price behavior forces that buyer to reprice?
buyer_not_in_yet	Why has that buyer not already fully bought?
priced_in_status	How much of the upside appears already priced in?
seller_error	What must the current seller be wrong about?
confirmation_required	What must be confirmed before posture strengthens?
invalidation	What would show the payoff bridge is wrong?
failure_mode	Most likely way the buy/add/chase thesis fails.

If marginal_buyer, payoff_source or repricing_trigger cannot be named, downgrade toward watch_only, needs_refresh or research_only.

Sell / Trim / Exit Questions

For sell-side actionability, use the mirror logic:

field	question
remaining_marginal_buyer	Who still has a reason to buy above the current price?
residual_payoff_source	What return source remains if the user keeps holding?
buyer_exhaustion	Has the original marginal buyer already completed repricing?
marginal_seller	Who could become the next seller: thesis owners, event traders, crowded longs, risk managers, passive/systematic flow, or balance-sheet sellers?
downside_repricing_trigger	What evidence or event could make selling pressure dominant?
priced_in_status	Is the prior upside priced in, over-priced, or still under-recognized?
buyer_error	What must the current buyer or holder be wrong about?
hold_confirmation_required	What must be confirmed to justify holding rather than trimming?
invalidation	What would show the sell/trim thesis is wrong?
failure_mode	Most likely way selling is premature.

If remaining payoff is small, hard to evidence, or already priced in while downside triggers are nearer or more knowable, downgrade toward trim_review, risk_cap_review or exit_review only after applying position-data rules. Without real position data, keep the implication research-bound.

Minimum Output

For quick_map, show this bridge in natural language:

• "the next buyer/seller is probably..."
• "the payoff source is..."
• "this strengthens only if..."
• "this fails if..."

For standard or durable actionability work, include a structured bridge in actionability-bridge.md and tie material claims to source notes or an evidence log.

Stop Rules

• No identifiable marginal buyer or remaining buyer: do not upgrade actionability.
• No payoff source beyond price momentum: mark technical_liquidity_only and downgrade unless the task is explicitly a short-term market-structure read.
• No valuation, expectation or event anchor when price matters: downgrade to source_gap, calculation_gap, needs_refresh or watch_only.
• Time-sensitive price context without current quote or publish time cannot support live-use actionability.
• Real position-size, trim or exit conclusions require holdings, weights, mandate and risk budget.