long-term-multibagger-checklist.md

Long-Term Multibagger Checklist

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• horizon_bucket: long_term_thesis
• selected_framework: {{ selected_framework }}
• selected_lenses: long-term-multibagger
• stale_after: {{ stale_after }}
• not_investment_advice: true

Target Return Path

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• five_times_upside_question: {{ five_times_upside_question }}
• required_revenue_outcome: {{ required_revenue_outcome }}
• required_margin_or_fcf_outcome: {{ required_margin_or_fcf_outcome }}
• required_valuation_outcome: {{ required_valuation_outcome }}
• dividend_or_buyback_contribution: {{ dividend_or_buyback_contribution }}

Market Misunderstanding

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• market_misunderstanding: {{ market_misunderstanding }}
• what_is_priced_in: {{ what_is_priced_in }}
• evidence_that_forces_rerating: {{ evidence_that_forces_rerating }}
• what_would_show_market_is_right: {{ what_would_show_market_is_right }}

Business Compounding Engine

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• right_to_win: {{ right_to_win }}
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• reinvestment_runway: {{ reinvestment_runway }}
• operating_leverage: {{ operating_leverage }}
• capital_intensity: {{ capital_intensity }}
• unit_economics: {{ unit_economics }}

Shareholder Return Path

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• probability_weighted_upside: {{ probability_weighted_upside }}
• position_sizing_implication: {{ position_sizing_implication }}
• missed_winner_risk: {{ missed_winner_risk }}

Evidence Ladder

Level	Evidence	Current Status	Source Trail	Upgrade Trigger	Downgrade Trigger
weak_signal	{{ weak_signal }}	{{ weak_signal_status }}	{{ weak_signal_sources }}	{{ weak_signal_upgrade }}	{{ weak_signal_downgrade }}
operating_confirmation	{{ operating_confirmation }}	{{ operating_confirmation_status }}	{{ operating_confirmation_sources }}	{{ operating_confirmation_upgrade }}	{{ operating_confirmation_downgrade }}
financial_confirmation	{{ financial_confirmation }}	{{ financial_confirmation_status }}	{{ financial_confirmation_sources }}	{{ financial_confirmation_upgrade }}	{{ financial_confirmation_downgrade }}
external_confirmation	{{ external_confirmation }}	{{ external_confirmation_status }}	{{ external_confirmation_sources }}	{{ external_confirmation_upgrade }}	{{ external_confirmation_downgrade }}

Kill Criteria

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• valuation_break: {{ valuation_break }}
• management_or_governance_break: {{ management_or_governance_break }}
• market_misunderstanding_break: {{ market_misunderstanding_break }}

Must Refresh If

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