README.md

🏦 End-to-End Financial Forecasting Pipeline (SQL + CNN-LSTM)

A Full-Stack Data Engineering & ML Project

🚀 Project Overview

This project implements a production-grade Financial Data Warehouse and Forecasting System. Unlike basic scripts that rely on static CSV files, this system features a robust ETL Pipeline that ingests real-time market data, normalizes it, and stores it in a relational database (SQLite).

The forecasting engine utilizes a Hybrid CNN-LSTM Deep Learning Model, capable of analyzing multivariate signals (Price, Volume, Moving Averages) to predict stock trends with high directional accuracy.

🏗️ System Architecture

graph LR
    A[Yahoo Finance API] -->|Extract| B(ETL Pipeline)
    B -->|Transform & Clean| C{SQLite Data Warehouse}
    C -->|Query & Load| D[CNN-LSTM Model]
    D -->|Inference| E[Streamlit Dashboard]

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Key Components

1. ETL Pipeline (etl_pipeline.py):
   • Automated ingestion of OHLCV data.
   • Handles schema validation and "upserts" (update/insert) to prevent data duplication.
   • Cleans artifacts (e.g., flattening multi-index columns from source APIs).
2. SQL Data Warehouse (financial_data.db):
   • Persistent storage using SQLite.
   • Designed with strict schema constraints (UNIQUE(ticker, date)) to ensure data integrity.
3. Hybrid AI Model (forecaster.py):
   • CNN Layer: Extracts short-term volatility patterns and local trends.
   • LSTM Layer: Captures long-term temporal dependencies.
   • Multivariate: Learns from 3 inputs: Close Price, Volume, and SMA-20.

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🛠️ Tech Stack

• Language: Python 3.11
• Database: SQLite3
• Deep Learning: TensorFlow, Keras (Conv1D + LSTM)
• Data Processing: Pandas, NumPy, Scikit-Learn
• Visualization: Plotly, Matplotlib, Streamlit

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💻 Installation & Setup

1. Clone the Repository

git clone https://github.com/dysrea/financial-forecaster
cd financial-forecaster

2. Create Virtual Environment

python -m venv venv
# Activate: 
# Windows: .\venv\Scripts\activate
# Mac/Linux: source venv/bin/activate

3. Install Dependencies

pip install -r requirements.txt

How to Run the Pipeline

This system is designed to be run in a specific order to mimic a real-world data workflow.

Step 1: Initialize the Database

Creates the SQLite file and defines the table schema.

python db_manager.py

Step 2: Run the ETL Job

Downloads raw data, cleans it, and loads it into the database.

python etl_pipeline.py

Step 3: Train the AI Model

Queries the database for training data and builds the CNN-LSTM model.

python forecaster.py

Step 4: Launch the Dashboard

Starts the real-time web interface to visualize predictions.

python dashboard.py

Performance & Results

• Optimization: The model uses a "Sliding Window" approach (60-day lookback) to predict the T+1 closing price.
• Lag Reduction: By incorporating Volume and SMA-20 as features, the model reacts faster to trend reversals compared to univariate baselines.
• Era-Specific Training: The pipeline filters for modern market dynamics (post-2022) to prevent "Price Anchoring" bias from historical lows.