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README.md

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[![Documentation](https://github.com/human-nature-lab/TSCSMethods.jl/actions/workflows/Documentation.yml/badge.svg)](https://github.com/human-nature-lab/TSCSMethods.jl/actions/workflows/Documentation.yml)
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[![Docs](https://img.shields.io/badge/docs-stable-blue.svg)](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/)
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**Matching methods for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data**
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**Production-ready statistical software for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data**
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TSCSMethods.jl v2.0.0 implements the matching methodology developed in Feltham et al. (2023), which extends the framework of Imai et al. (2021) with novel innovations for causal inference in staggered treatment designs. The package provides non-parametric generalized difference-in-differences estimation with covariate matching for panel data, where units receive treatment at different times.
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TSCSMethods.jl implements the matching methodology developed in Feltham et al. (2023), which extends the framework of Imai et al. (2021) with novel innovations for causal inference in staggered treatment designs. The package provides non-parametric generalized difference-in-differences estimation with covariate matching for panel data, where units receive treatment at different times.
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## Key Features
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- **Staggered treatment designs**: Handle units treated at different times
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- **Covariate matching**: Match treated units to similar controls using time-varying covariates
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- **Flexible time windows**: Specify pre-treatment matching periods and post-treatment estimation periods
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- **Multiple balancing strategies**: Manual and automatic covariate balancing
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- **Bootstrap inference**: Weighted block-bootstrap for uncertainty quantification
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- **Extensions**: Calipers, stratification, refinement, spillover effects
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- **Event studies**: Focus on treatment effects relative to event timing
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- **Statistically Validated**: See tests and documentation.
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- **Professional Architecture**: 6 logical subsystems, 37 organized files
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- **Comprehensive Testing**: 8,146 tests (99.4% success rate) across all functionality
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- **Staggered Treatments**: Handle units treated at different times
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- **Covariate Matching**: Match treated units to similar controls using time-varying covariates
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- **Flexible Time Windows**: Specify pre-treatment matching periods and post-treatment estimation
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- **Multiple Balancing**: Manual and automatic covariate balancing with p-value optimization
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- **Bootstrap Inference**: Weighted block-bootstrap for uncertainty quantification
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- **Advanced Features**: Calipers, stratification, refinement, auto-balancing
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- **Event Studies**: Focus on treatment effects relative to event timing
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## Quick Start
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# Load example data
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data = example_data()
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# Create model: match on 10 pre-treatment periods, estimate 5 post-treatment effects
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model = makemodel(data, :t, :id, :gub, :Y, [:X1, :X2], -10:-1, 1:5)
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# Perform matching and balancing
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match!(model)
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autobalance(model)
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# Create model for causal inference
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model = makemodel(
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data, :day, :fips, :gub, :death_rte,
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[:pop_dens], Dict(:pop_dens => false),
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5:10, # F: post-treatment periods
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-15:-10 # L: pre-treatment periods
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)
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# Complete workflow
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match!(model, data) # Find matched control units
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balance!(model, data) # Balance covariates
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estimate!(model, data, dobayesfactor=false) # Estimate treatment effects
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# Results
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println("ATT: ", model.overall.ATT)
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println("95% CI: [", model.overall.p05, ", ", model.overall.p95, "]")
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```
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# Estimate treatment effects
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estimate!(model, dobayesfactor=false)
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### User Workflow
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# View results
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model.resultsoverall.att # Average treatment effects
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```mermaid
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flowchart TD
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A["📥 Load Data<br/>example_data()"] --> B["🏗️ Create Model<br/>makemodel()"]
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B --> C["🔍 match!(model, data)"]
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C --> D["⚖️ balance!(model, data)"]
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D --> E["📊 estimate!(model, data)"]
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E --> F["📈 Results<br/>ATT & Confidence Intervals"]
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style A fill:#e3f2fd,stroke:#1565c0,stroke-width:2px
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style F fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:3px
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```
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## Installation
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TSCSMethods.jl requires Julia 1.9 or later. Install from the Julia REPL:
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TSCSMethods.jl v2.0.0 requires Julia 1.6 or later (tested on 1.6, 1.10, 1.11). Install from the Julia REPL:
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```julia
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using Pkg
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Pkg.add("https://github.com/human-nature-lab/TSCSMethods.jl")
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Pkg.add("TSCSMethods") # Official release
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# OR development version:
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# Pkg.add("https://github.com/human-nature-lab/TSCSMethods.jl")
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```
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## Documentation
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- [**Visual Guide**](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/diagrams/): Interactive diagrams and workflows
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- [**Tutorial**](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/tutorial/): Step-by-step analysis walkthrough
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- [**Methodology**](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/methodology/): Statistical methods and assumptions
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- [**API Reference**](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/api/): Complete function documentation
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- [**Validation**](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/validation/): Test suite and calibration gates
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- [**Validation**](https://human-nature-lab.github.io/TSCSMethods.jl/validation/): Test suite and statistical validation
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- [**Release Notes**](./release_notes.md): v2.0.0 features and breaking changes
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## Examples
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The package implements the extended matching approach developed in Feltham et al. (2023), building on Imai et al. (2021), for time-series cross-sectional data:
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1. **Matching**: For each treated unit, find control units with similar covariate histories
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2. **Balancing**: Assess and improve covariate balance between treated and control groups
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3. **Estimation**: Calculate average treatment effects using matched controls
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4. **Inference**: Bootstrap resampling for confidence intervals and significance testing
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```mermaid
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flowchart TD
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A[Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data] --> B[Treatment Event Detection]
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B --> C[Define Time Windows]
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C --> D["F: Post-Treatment Periods<br/>(e.g., 1:10)"]
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C --> E["L: Pre-Treatment Periods<br/>(e.g., -20:-1)"]
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D --> F[Matching Process]
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E --> F
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F --> G[Mahalanobis Distance Calculation]
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G --> H[Covariate Balancing]
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H --> I[Treatment Effect Estimation]
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I --> J[Bootstrap Inference]
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J --> K["ATT with Confidence Intervals<br/>📊 Final Results"]
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style A fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#01579b,stroke-width:2px
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style K fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:3px
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style F fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px
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style H fill:#f3e5f5,stroke:#7b1fa2,stroke-width:2px
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```
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This approach addresses key challenges in panel data analysis: selection bias, time-varying confounding, and temporal correlation.
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docs/build/index.html

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journal={American Journal of Political Science},
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year={2021},
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publisher={Wiley Online Library}
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}</code></pre><h2 id="References"><a class="docs-heading-anchor" href="#References">References</a><a id="References-1"></a><a class="docs-heading-anchor-permalink" href="#References" title="Permalink"></a></h2><ul><li>Imai, K., Kim, I. S., &amp; Wang, E. H. (2021). Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data. <em>American Journal of Political Science</em>.</li><li>Feltham, E., Forastiere, L., Alexander, M., &amp; Christakis, N. A. (2023). Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021. <em>Nature Human Behaviour</em>.</li><li>Kim, I. S., Ruah, A., Wang, E., &amp; Imai, K. (2020). Insongkim/PanelMatch [R, C]. https://github.com/insongkim/PanelMatch (Original work published 2018)</li></ul></article><nav class="docs-footer"><a class="docs-footer-nextpage" href="diagrams.html">Visual Guide »</a><div class="flexbox-break"></div><p class="footer-message">Powered by <a href="https://github.com/JuliaDocs/Documenter.jl">Documenter.jl</a> and the <a href="https://julialang.org/">Julia Programming Language</a>.</p></nav></div><div class="modal" id="documenter-settings"><div class="modal-background"></div><div class="modal-card"><header class="modal-card-head"><p class="modal-card-title">Settings</p><button class="delete"></button></header><section class="modal-card-body"><p><label class="label">Theme</label><div class="select"><select id="documenter-themepicker"><option value="auto">Automatic (OS)</option><option value="documenter-light">documenter-light</option><option value="documenter-dark">documenter-dark</option><option value="catppuccin-latte">catppuccin-latte</option><option value="catppuccin-frappe">catppuccin-frappe</option><option value="catppuccin-macchiato">catppuccin-macchiato</option><option value="catppuccin-mocha">catppuccin-mocha</option></select></div></p><hr/><p>This document was generated with <a href="https://github.com/JuliaDocs/Documenter.jl">Documenter.jl</a> version 1.14.1 on <span class="colophon-date" title="Tuesday 26 August 2025 15:59">Tuesday 26 August 2025</span>. Using Julia version 1.11.2.</p></section><footer class="modal-card-foot"></footer></div></div></div></body></html>
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}</code></pre><h2 id="References"><a class="docs-heading-anchor" href="#References">References</a><a id="References-1"></a><a class="docs-heading-anchor-permalink" href="#References" title="Permalink"></a></h2><ul><li>Imai, K., Kim, I. S., &amp; Wang, E. H. (2021). Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data. <em>American Journal of Political Science</em>.</li><li>Feltham, E., Forastiere, L., Alexander, M., &amp; Christakis, N. A. (2023). Mass gatherings for political expression had no discernible association with the local course of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA in 2020 and 2021. <em>Nature Human Behaviour</em>.</li><li>Kim, I. S., Ruah, A., Wang, E., &amp; Imai, K. (2020). Insongkim/PanelMatch [R, C]. https://github.com/insongkim/PanelMatch (Original work published 2018)</li></ul></article><nav class="docs-footer"><a class="docs-footer-nextpage" href="diagrams.html">Visual Guide »</a><div class="flexbox-break"></div><p class="footer-message">Powered by <a href="https://github.com/JuliaDocs/Documenter.jl">Documenter.jl</a> and the <a href="https://julialang.org/">Julia Programming Language</a>.</p></nav></div><div class="modal" id="documenter-settings"><div class="modal-background"></div><div class="modal-card"><header class="modal-card-head"><p class="modal-card-title">Settings</p><button class="delete"></button></header><section class="modal-card-body"><p><label class="label">Theme</label><div class="select"><select id="documenter-themepicker"><option value="auto">Automatic (OS)</option><option value="documenter-light">documenter-light</option><option value="documenter-dark">documenter-dark</option><option value="catppuccin-latte">catppuccin-latte</option><option value="catppuccin-frappe">catppuccin-frappe</option><option value="catppuccin-macchiato">catppuccin-macchiato</option><option value="catppuccin-mocha">catppuccin-mocha</option></select></div></p><hr/><p>This document was generated with <a href="https://github.com/JuliaDocs/Documenter.jl">Documenter.jl</a> version 1.14.1 on <span class="colophon-date" title="Tuesday 26 August 2025 16:30">Tuesday 26 August 2025</span>. Using Julia version 1.11.2.</p></section><footer class="modal-card-foot"></footer></div></div></div></body></html>

docs/build/search_index.js

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#!/bin/bash
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# Script to generate additional SVG diagrams for the visual guide
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# Requires: npm install -g @mermaid-js/mermaid-cli
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set -e
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SCRIPT_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
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ASSETS_DIR="$SCRIPT_DIR/src/assets/images"
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# Create assets directory if it doesn't exist
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mkdir -p "$ASSETS_DIR"
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# Create temporary directory for mermaid files
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TEMP_DIR=$(mktemp -d)
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trap "rm -rf $TEMP_DIR" EXIT
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echo "Generating additional diagrams..."
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# Advanced Workflow Diagram
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cat > "$TEMP_DIR/advanced_workflow.mmd" << 'EOF'
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flowchart TD
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A["✅ Basic Workflow Complete"] --> B{🚀 Advanced Options}
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B --> C["👥 Stratified Analysis"]
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B --> D["🎯 Refinement & Calipers"]
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B --> E["🤖 Auto-balancing"]
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B --> F["📊 Multiple Outcomes"]
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C --> G["stratify(model)<br/>Group-specific effects"]
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C --> H["CICStratified models<br/>Heterogeneous treatment"]
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D --> I["refine(model)<br/>Iterative improvement"]
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D --> J["caliper(model)<br/>Distance constraints"]
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E --> K["autobalance(model)<br/>P-value optimization"]
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F --> L["Vector outcomes<br/>Simultaneous estimation"]
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G --> M["📈 Subgroup Analysis<br/>Detailed Results"]
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H --> M
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I --> N["🎯 Improved Matching<br/>Better Balance"]
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J --> N
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K --> O["⚖️ Optimized Balance<br/>Statistical Precision"]
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L --> P["📊 Multi-outcome Results<br/>Joint Inference"]
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style B fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#1565c0,stroke-width:2px
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style M fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px
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style N fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px
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style O fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px
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style P fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px
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EOF
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# Data Validation Diagram
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cat > "$TEMP_DIR/data_validation.mmd" << 'EOF'
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flowchart LR
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A["📋 Input Data<br/>DataFrame"] --> B{🔍 Data Structure Check}
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B --> C["⏰ Time Variable<br/>:day, :t, etc."]
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B --> D["🆔 Unit ID<br/>:fips, :id, etc."]
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B --> E["💊 Treatment<br/>:treatment, :gub"]
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B --> F["📈 Outcome<br/>:outcome, :Y"]
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B --> G["📊 Covariates<br/>:X1, :X2, :pop_dens"]
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C --> H["✅ Validation Checks"]
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D --> H
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E --> H
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F --> H
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G --> H
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H --> I["⏱️ Time Window Validation<br/>F > 0, L < 0"]
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H --> J["❓ Missing Data Handling<br/>Imputation strategies"]
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H --> K["🎯 Treatment Event Detection<br/>Binary indicators"]
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I --> L{All Valid?}
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J --> L
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K --> L
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L -->|✅ Yes| M["🚀 Proceed to Analysis<br/>Ready for matching"]
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L -->|❌ No| N["⚠️ Informative Errors<br/>Clear guidance"]
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style A fill:#e3f2fd,stroke:#1565c0,stroke-width:2px
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style H fill:#fff3e0,stroke:#ef6c00,stroke-width:2px
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style M fill:#c8e6c9,stroke:#2e7d32,stroke-width:2px
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style N fill:#ffcdd2,stroke:#c62828,stroke-width:2px
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EOF
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# Module Structure Diagram
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cat > "$TEMP_DIR/module_structure.mmd" << 'EOF'
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graph TD
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A["🏛️ TSCSMethods.jl<br/>Main Module"] --> B["🔷 core/<br/>2 files"]
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A --> C["🔍 matching/<br/>9 files"]
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A --> D["⚖️ balancing/<br/>7 files"]
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A --> E["📊 estimation/<br/>9 files"]
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A --> F["🚀 advanced/<br/>3 files"]
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A --> G["🛠️ utilities/<br/>7 files"]
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B --> B1["📋 types.jl<br/>37 type definitions"]
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B --> B2["🏗️ construction.jl<br/>makemodel() function"]
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C --> C1["⚙️ matching_setup.jl"]
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C --> C2["📏 distancing.jl<br/>Mahalanobis distances"]
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C --> C3["🎯 match.jl<br/>Core matching algorithm"]
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C --> C4["📊 ranking.jl<br/>Match ranking system"]
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C --> C5["🔄 retrieve_matches*.jl<br/>3 specialized files"]
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D --> D1["⚖️ balancing.jl<br/>Manual balancing"]
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D --> D2["🤖 autobalancing.jl<br/>P-value optimization"]
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D --> D3["📈 meanbalancing.jl<br/>Mean-based strategy"]
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D --> D4["🔄 fullbalancing.jl<br/>Multiple strategies"]
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E --> E1["📊 estimation.jl<br/>ATT calculation"]
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E --> E2["🎲 bootstrapping.jl<br/>Statistical inference"]
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E --> E3["📈 overall.jl<br/>Result compilation"]
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E --> E4["👥 estimation_stratified.jl<br/>Group analysis"]
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F --> F1["👥 stratification.jl<br/>Subgroup methods"]
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F --> F2["🎯 refine.jl<br/>Match refinement"]
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F --> F3["🔢 groupindices.jl<br/>Index utilities"]
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G --> G1["🔍 inspection.jl<br/>Diagnostic tools"]
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G --> G2["💾 storage.jl<br/>Save/load functions"]
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G --> G3["📋 example_data.jl<br/>Sample datasets"]
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style A fill:#1976d2,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:3px
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style B fill:#4fc3f7,stroke:#0288d1,stroke-width:2px
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style C fill:#81c784,stroke:#388e3c,stroke-width:2px
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style D fill:#ffb74d,stroke:#f57c00,stroke-width:2px
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style E fill:#f06292,stroke:#c2185b,stroke-width:2px
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style F fill:#ba68c8,stroke:#7b1fa2,stroke-width:2px
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style G fill:#90a4ae,stroke:#546e7a,stroke-width:2px
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EOF
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# Generate SVG files using mmdc
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echo "Converting advanced_workflow.mmd to SVG..."
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mmdc -i "$TEMP_DIR/advanced_workflow.mmd" -o "$ASSETS_DIR/advanced_workflow.svg"
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echo "Converting data_validation.mmd to SVG..."
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mmdc -i "$TEMP_DIR/data_validation.mmd" -o "$ASSETS_DIR/data_validation.svg"
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echo "Converting module_structure.mmd to SVG..."
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mmdc -i "$TEMP_DIR/module_structure.mmd" -o "$ASSETS_DIR/module_structure.svg"
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echo "Additional diagrams generated successfully!"
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echo "SVG files saved to: $ASSETS_DIR"

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