Show whether an attack succeeded or not

[john-light]

Something that would be interesting to see in each documented attack is whether the attack actually succeeded at stealing BTC. So this way we could add attacks that were attempted but failed for some reason. Perhaps a new column that says "Resolution", where there can be a comment indicating whether or not the coins were successfully stolen in the initial attack, and if so, were they ever eventually recovered or not. This would help unveil interesting insights around the success rate of these attacks over time, as well as common factors in success cases and failure cases which can provide valuable lessons for hodlers.

[jimtje]

FYI, you can set up an RSS feed to your preferred set of keywords on Courtlistener and when new cases/documents filed in federal court in the US shows up, you'll be able to see it. It's probably the only viable way to get close to the information you want, with the caveat that the indictment filed will always contain information that is inadmissible, unprovable, or erroneous (intentionally or by mistake). It also represents only the perpetrators who get caught or are unfortunate enough to get coerced into admitting to something they didn't do - something that happens far more often than anyone likes to admit. If you are okay with "cases where the AUSA have decided that what the FBI have gathered is enough to coerce a plea", it's pretty much the primary source for such things.

For example, the RSS feed for "bitcoin robbery" with United States as a party (indicating a criminal case) is: https://www.courtlistener.com/feed/search/?q=bitcoin+robbery&type=r&order_by=entry_date_filed+desc&party_name=United+States with cases that have the most recent filings up top. Note that some of the cases are not actually related to a bitcoin-related robbery (Sterlingov is the Bitcoin Fog case, which is being appealed because of the shenanigans Chainalysis and the Feds pulled to Chewbacca-defense the pre-trial evidentiary hearings, among other things, and delaying the proceedings by 2 years) and the match is based on the FBI agent asserting his expertise in robbery investigations on the record (even though it isn't relevant at all, take that however you will). The quirks of the antiquated case management system employed by the federal court system also means that some cases are duplicated or more.

One handy feature is that if a document is unavailable, the pray-and-pay function on the site does work since I and I assume many others on the site regularly fulfill such requests. The vast majority of the unfilled requests at the top are actually for documents under seal and so cannot be fulfilled, but generally if you can get two people to tag an unsealed but unavailable filing it'll get filled in a few days. Also, the whole thing is free so the price is right. The paid platforms really aren't any better anyway, and generally don't have API/RSS that's accessible. Play around with keywords to see what works for you and it's probably the best solution that is available, as long as you don't expect 100% coverage or 100% accuracy. Hope that helps!

[disinqa]

Something that would be interesting to see in each documented attack is whether the attack actually succeeded at stealing BTC. So this way we could add attacks that were attempted but failed for some reason. Perhaps a new column that says "Resolution", where there can be a comment indicating whether or not the coins were successfully stolen in the initial attack, and if so, were they ever eventually recovered or not. This would help unveil interesting insights around the success rate of these attacks over time, as well as common factors in success cases and failure cases which can provide valuable lessons for hodlers.

https://stats.glok.me/ is showing several metrics of 292 (so far) known cases. Whether the theft succeeded or not is not always reported so the numbers should be taken as "at least". You can also browse the cases, filter them by country, year and fatalities (which imo are the worst outcome).

The violence types taken into consideration are:

1. detention,
2. physical violence/torture,
3. weapons,
4. alcohol/drugs,
5. theft,
6. life taken.

Ie. even if the attackers weren't able to extract ransom, the attack already happened, so it's needless to say it was successful. There is one scenario called Dodged attack - meaning the victim had been targeted but for pure luck or fortunate circumstances, it didn't fully unfold.