You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You signed out in another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You switched accounts on another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.Dismiss alert
2077406548012466390,2026-07-15T14:54:52.000Z,post,"$NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang in Tokyo today said: ""The reports are not true. Vera Rubin is already in production. Giant amounts of production incoming"" As a flat denial to the accusation that their AI servers would be delayed. Jensen appears to be using the Umbrella term for Rubin Ultra/Kyber, then pointed to current gen ramp. Regardless, lot of damage has been done already to Nvidia supply chains stock prices, after the multiple delay reports. Even if Nvidia refuted them by clarifying Kyber change was an architecture optimization, not impacting timelines. It's a very dangerous and growing trend for folks to post overreaching broader claims from technical nuances to grow viewcount... Especially if they get Jensen has to respond. In the end, I'm trusting $NVDA on timelines since they probably have the greatest visibility into their own supply chain.",NVDA,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077406548012466390,2077406548012466390,
6452
6452
2077421268991926703,2026-07-15T15:53:21.000Z,post,"$AAPL looks to acquire AI chip companies for running AI (Source: The Information) Right now, $MSFT, $META, Amazon, Google are carrying AI capex spend. But what if Apple joined the others after M&A? A possible scenario is that they revise capex largely upward for their own AI buildout. Since they probably witnessed Google cutting off Meta from compute constraints... or what happens when you partner with OpenAI for LLMs. Then learned how important it is to have your own infrastructure. This scenario would be quite bullish thematically from optical networking to foundries and something markets would not expect? We'll see what happens.",AAPL|META|MSFT,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077421268991926703,2077421268991926703,
6453
6453
2077437150715666900,2026-07-15T16:56:28.000Z,post,"Anthropic to IPO as early as October per Bloomberg. This is following their $65B financing at a $965 billion valuation last May. Hmm, would you all invest in Anthropic at a $1T+ valuation? https://t.co/iFIY1WulvO",,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077437150715666900,2077437150715666900,
6454
+
2077741631135191234,2026-07-16T13:06:22.000Z,quote,I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore. https://t.co/0MvdfJmBg3 https://t.co/mlDHvBdn41,,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077741631135191234,2077741631135191234,2077664308431892833
6455
+
2077753660592033828,2026-07-16T13:54:10.000Z,post,"Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.",MU|QCOM,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077753660592033828,2077753660592033828,
6456
+
2077768896061563339,2026-07-16T14:54:42.000Z,quote,"Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.",AMD|GFS|JBL|POET|SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077768896061563339,2077768896061563339,2077427816870646183
6457
+
2077784594959725056,2026-07-16T15:57:05.000Z,post,My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0. https://t.co/X1m9Yv1JuX,INTC|LITE|RDDT,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077784594959725056,2077784594959725056,
6458
+
2077955479742173422,2026-07-17T03:16:07.000Z,post,"Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: ""This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY"" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: ""suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand"". - 2027: ""fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range."" In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote ""no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028"". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.",INTC|MU|SKHY,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077955479742173422,2077955479742173422,
6459
+
2078130772121399553,2026-07-17T14:52:40.000Z,quote,"Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.",AAOI|NVDA|SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078130772121399553,2078130772121399553,2077937700246626632
6460
+
2078150537074373117,2026-07-17T16:11:12.000Z,quote,"Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.",,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078150537074373117,2078150537074373117,2078130772121399553
6461
+
2078161322769068533,2026-07-17T16:54:04.000Z,post,"Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources claiming this data came from Goldman Sachs desks rather than SK financial supervisory service data) Regardless, just evidence recent crash was accelerated by liquidation cascades/deleveraging rather than fundamentals:",,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078161322769068533,2078161322769068533,
6462
+
2078175882620059719,2026-07-17T17:51:55.000Z,post,"$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT",IREN|META|NBIS|SPCX,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078175882620059719,2078175882620059719,
6463
+
2078228019584668121,2026-07-17T21:19:06.000Z,quote,"Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.",AAOI|LITE|SIVE|SOI|TSM,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078228019584668121,2078228019584668121,2078183628807528616
6464
+
2078283847612186739,2026-07-18T01:00:56.000Z,quote,"Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When others try and pitch their $40 TA subscriptions that are always right and predicted the semis crash. But if they really believed it, they would have made 5000%+ buying puts and wouldn’t need to market a paywall. Yes, if I’m on 1.4x leverage, and if a portfolio concentrated in memory/photonics underlying crashes -35% on avg… you get a 49% drawdown. I’m just sharing what happens. But I expect AI names to recover since I see demand from compute to energy to memory to networking to be structural.",,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078283847612186739,2078283847612186739,2078263177708478485
6465
+
2078338950150959558,2026-07-18T04:39:54.000Z,post,"For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.",SKHY,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078338950150959558,2078338950150959558,
6466
+
2078914447180263438,2026-07-19T18:46:43.000Z,post,There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand. https://t.co/d8mnuAQdLz,,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078914447180263438,2078914447180263438,
0 commit comments