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digest: 2026-07-10 (她延续"最愚蠢主题性抛售=机会"元论点并转向用已发生公司行动佐证光子学-CPO 论点: ①META内部备忘录曝光显示AI capex一如既往爬坡[与Samsung/SNDK签内存LTA/与住友电工签光纤LTA/今年7GW算力2027翻倍/capex高达$145B/每六个月出一款芯片到2027]直接反驳"削capex"叙事; ②Sivers拿到较硬新事实——三笔内部人买入+CEO Vikram公开市场买1,000,000 SEK被她称"管理层信心最清晰信号"叠加GFS/JBL激光合作与近期NASDAQ上市目标, 连自创"金蛋神龙烛"TA梗都拿来自嘲; ③光子学/CPO论点"根本没变"[抛售两大起因Meta Compute头条+两份CPO延迟报告已被内部备忘录澄清/被NVDA否认], 她逐条复述LITE售罄到2029/SIVE与GF-Jabil-Poet-Ayar放量/AAOI $471m月[h2 2027]/IQE epiwafer/AXTI 40% InP, Rosenblatt称空头"并不真信自己论点"将7月底8月初平仓/2027再买光学股并把B.Riley"砍transceiver TAM 40-50%"模型化为XPU数量增长使光学总需求仍升+重申UHP CW才是CPO理想激光[引Broadcom]支持她核心SIVE论点; ④人形机器人中国出货占全球≈90%[Elon回"暂时而已"]+1X发布"最先进机械手"她判美国拐点将至并自述通过CCXI做多Agility瞄准Amazon商业化+三菱×Highlanders计划2027部署人形工人, 列出Agility CCXI×Foxconn/Toyota-Apptronik×JBL/Mercedes-Figure×BMW-Boston Dynamics×现代-Optimus×Tesla-Rainbow×三星的车企捆绑潮; ⑤元层面SK Hynix美股SKHYV首日+16%她调侃散户兴奋主因是可打"degen期权call"而非买个股并好奇周一韩国本土盘怎么反应)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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reports/aleabito-60d-dashboard.html

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2074951295027568736,2026-07-08T20:18:34.000Z,quote,"Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.",AXTI|CCXI|NBIS|SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074951295027568736,2074951295027568736,2074778487928553573
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2074965761345642660,2026-07-08T21:16:03.000Z,post,$META to build a new $10B DC in Canada to expand AI capacity. So much for the media framing of “Meta Compute”as overbuilding and cutting capex. https://t.co/0QgSls0s9o,META,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074965761345642660,2074965761345642660,
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2074979055410266452,2026-07-08T22:08:52.000Z,post,"Wow, looks like Elon + xAI at $SPCX managed to build an Anthropic Opus-level LLM with Grok 4.5. That’s much more cost efficient as well… Kinda emulating what Chinese vendors have been doing to compete on pricing + adoption. (Which is an ideal thing given Chinese model growth among US companies recently) Never doubt Elon, maybe they might end up leapfrogging Anthropic + Mythos?",SPCX,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2074979055410266452,2074979055410266452,
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2075199849507762279,2026-07-09T12:46:14.000Z,post,"Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B capex spend this year “It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”",META|SNDK,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075199849507762279,2075199849507762279,
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2075289915697553697,2026-07-09T18:44:07.000Z,quote,"Three new $SIVE insider purchases today. Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today. This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director. Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence. Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term. Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).",GFS|JBL|SIVE|SIVEF,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075289915697553697,2075289915697553697,2075281258431606876
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2075302956581449892,2026-07-09T19:35:56.000Z,quote,"""China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly."" Elon's comment: ""For now"" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both technologically with players like 1X and with mass production with $TSLA? I'm am personally long on Agility through $CCXI targeting commercialization with Amazon and others. But I'm proud to see American robotics as a whole go brrrr.",CCXI|TSLA,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075302956581449892,2075302956581449892,2075291754215977290
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2075496116481884524,2026-07-10T08:23:29.000Z,quote,"Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.",AAOI|AXTI|IQE|LITE|SIVE|TSM,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075496116481884524,2075496116481884524,2075482186090688751
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2075539824589860866,2026-07-10T11:17:10.000Z,quote,"The ""Mythical Golden Egg Dragon Candle"" predicted the $SIVE rally today. If you look at the Golden Egg hatching indicator I drew, you can tell it predicts Sivers CEO buying on the open market a day later. Do you guys think it's time I should sell courses on TA? https://t.co/LweBzWStuk https://t.co/ckYZsDqZM9",SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075539824589860866,2075539824589860866,2074536982311743623
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2075557588159058076,2026-07-10T12:27:45.000Z,post,"Mitsubishi Motors joins robotics race to deploy humanoid workers by 2027. Pairing with Highlanders, a Japanese robotics company. - Agility $CCXI x Foxconn, Toyota - Apptronik x $JBL, Mercedes - Highlanders x Mitsubishi - Figure × BMW - Boston Dynamics x Hyundai (subsidiaries) - Optimus x Tesla (Internal) - Rainbow Robotics x Samsung (subsidiaries) Idk if it's just me of there's a lot of patterns with humanoid companies playing buddy-buddy up with a major auto player/manufacturer. If they're not already vertically integrated by one already. Then the Chinese players like UBTech/AgiBot/Unitree don't seem to care and work with a wide variety of auto players in China. Curious how this trend plays out...",CCXI|JBL,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075557588159058076,2075557588159058076,
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2075590371531493729,2026-07-10T14:38:01.000Z,post,Why do I have this weird feeling the main reason retail is excited SK Hynix NASDAQ listing. Is because they can do degen option calls instead of individual stock purchases. https://t.co/vXmrncXQOm,,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075590371531493729,2075590371531493729,
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2075611260771852590,2026-07-10T16:01:02.000Z,quote,Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV! It's now up an insane 16%. I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday. https://t.co/Mmqdu0poVY https://t.co/6i8x9JafGy,SKHYV,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075611260771852590,2075611260771852590,2075590371531493729
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2075634064518955297,2026-07-10T17:31:39.000Z,post,"Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: ""Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months"" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. ""We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."" Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity. Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward. I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.",AAOI|COHR|LITE|SIVEF,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075634064518955297,2075634064518955297,
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2075645547978084371,2026-07-10T18:17:16.000Z,post,"Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that ""flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%"". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.",AAOI|AMZN|SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075645547978084371,2075645547978084371,

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