digest: 2026-07-03 (META未退赛：新模型"Watermelon"据Wang已追平GPT 5.5/用比"Avocado"高一数量级算力+驳"AI agent四个月没如预期加速"是断章取义/Wang称Zuckerberg指全行业; SemiAnalysis称Meta算力会加速/2027 capex高得惊人/光子暴跌"很蠢"→她预期sharp V反弹尤其崩50%+的名字+质疑SemiAnalysis先发CPO唱空报告砸盘[被NVDA/分析师/光学公司驳斥]后在光学股跌40-60%后发机构光子ETF; 玻璃基板正面readthrough: Sumitomo-Samsung年内成立GlaSSEM合资/KRW 482.1B/H2 2027全面量产→TGV/LIDE里LPK[自持]/E&R/Onto受益+引LPK"80%客户选LPKF/TGV LIDE 70%市占目标"; 人形上市热: LeaderDrive[688017]20%涨停创历史新高+CCXI-Agility与Unitree[STAR上市获批]双双上市; 中国VC涌入physical AI/世界模型[LLM 23.56B/AI基建15.74B/具身13.36B]+纯基础模型融资基本关闭/世界模型成最大共识+她重申AEVA为4D敞口[无纯玩标的]+"看空人类"元层面)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: lanfuli

reports/aleabito-60d-dashboard.html

@@ -6383,3 +6383,11 @@ tweet_id,created_at,kind,text,tickers,source_url,conversation_id,referenced_twee
 2072765527764971642,2026-07-02T19:33:06.000Z,quote,Just this hour: BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI. I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd https://t.co/MycGe1we9A,CCXI,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072765527764971642,2072765527764971642,2072741541404406008
 2072781715916169660,2026-07-02T20:37:26.000Z,post,"Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.",MRVL,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072781715916169660,2072781715916169660,
 2072795186263187831,2026-07-02T21:30:57.000Z,post,"$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. ""Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity."" https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96",AXTI|COHR,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072795186263187831,2072795186263187831,
+2072902886712094919,2026-07-03T04:38:55.000Z,post,"$META: upcoming AI model “Watermelon” has caught up to OpenAI’s GPT 5.5. Wang noted it uses an ""order of magnitude"" more compute than its predecessor “Avocado”. Who said they were out of the AI race again? https://t.co/X2sOgMRTuw",META,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072902886712094919,2072902886712094919,
+2072906728853881251,2026-07-03T04:54:11.000Z,quote,Lot of misinformation recently about $META. Recently major journals have been stating “AI AGENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HASN'T 'ACCELERATED IN THE WAY WE EXPECTED” To push some narrative about Meta dropping out of the race or lowered capex: As Wang clarified: Zuckerberg was talking about the industry as a whole.,META,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072906728853881251,2072906728853881251,2072902886712094919
+2072913865458004014,2026-07-03T05:22:33.000Z,quote,LeaderDrive (688017) is now at all time highs after hitting a 20% limit up today. Looks like robotics sector excitement is palpable… Largely driven by US and China’s frontier humanoid companies with $CCXI / Agility Robotics As well as Unitree (STAR listing approved today) both going public.,CCXI,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072913865458004014,2072913865458004014,2062723902728802341
+2072922974345445511,2026-07-03T05:58:44.000Z,post,"SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.",META|NBIS,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072922974345445511,2072922974345445511,
+2072936659369517341,2026-07-03T06:53:07.000Z,post,"Be SemiAnalysis: - Post a scathing piece on CPO delays + optical company valuations, causing a crash. Which $NVDA, analyst desks, and major optical companies refuted - Launch an institutional photonics ETF after optical names dropped 40-60%.",NVDA,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072936659369517341,2072936659369517341,
+2072986020640076052,2026-07-03T10:09:16.000Z,post,"So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain: - Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM). Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: ""full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027"" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital. Think the ""full scale commercialization"" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027. So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries. Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted ""70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp"". These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp. Regardless, just an update on developments.",LPK,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2072986020640076052,2072986020640076052,
+2073044119287722024,2026-07-03T14:00:07.000Z,post,"Just some public market read through from Chinese private VC markets: Institutions are pouring funds into physical AI and world models. 1. Large models / LLMs: ~$23.56B 2. AI infrastructure + technical layer: ~$15.74B 3. Embodied intelligence / physical AI: ~$13.36B 4. AIGC applications: ~$8.79B 5. Autonomous driving + other Top-20 cluster: ~$3.82B, but not apples-to-apples with the above. Some notes: - ""Early-stage pure foundation-model funding is basically closed"". Looks like more funding is just being put into existing leaders and going into World Model companies. My guess is that we'll likely see the same in the US with Anthorpic/OpenAI consolidation. - ""World models have become the biggest consensus in early-stage investment."" I said months ago 4D AI/World Models would be the most interesting moving forward, and called out $AEVA as potential exposure. But there's not exactly any pure play exposure. But probably next we'll wait for the next IPOs here in this sector maybe H1 next year. - AIGC application sector is the most mature for AI technology commercialization ""Artificial Intelligence Generated Content commercialization is mature but no clear winner yet"". Makes sense. in the US there's stuff like Grok Imagine, Google Nano Banana, etc. no clear winner too. especially for video. _ TLDR: Continued funding into AI infrastructure/semiconductor supply chains. Huge capital rotation influx into physical AI / embodied brain / humanoids + world models from capital inflow. Consolidation around leading frontier model companies. Personally just validated what I've been focusing on with Agility Robotics and physical AI players (eg. leaderdrive, harmonic, etc) in public markets... As new potential opportunities in terms of capital rotation. But sadly no world model pure play exposure yet.",AEVA,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073044119287722024,2073044119287722024,
+2073196939785711796,2026-07-04T00:07:23.000Z,post,"I'm bearish on humans. Hard to see people still having a job if humanoids come out at <$15K mass production. No insurance, no JP Morgan HR cannon scandals. And can do everything a person can, but better + 24/7.",,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2073196939785711796,2073196939785711796,

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