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2089973586425766134,2026-08-19T07:11:47.000Z,post,"We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - ""the entire supply chain is out of stock"" - ""the supply is still far behind the market demand"" - ""the shortage will continue to the next few years"" ""Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply."" When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.",AAOI|LITE|MTSI,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2089973586425766134,2089973586425766134,
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2090103899302826302,2026-08-19T15:49:36.000Z,post,"$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. ""The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage and move information across networks."" Which could translate into ~$120 billion in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was ""networking"" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.",AMZN|GOOGL|MRVL,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090103899302826302,2090103899302826302,
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2090374603264929981,2026-08-20T09:45:17.000Z,post,"I'm glad the leverage bros moved from AI stocks back to Hyerliquid and biotech like $MRNA, so maybe we'll see a faster recovery. Aside from that just some TLDR stuff: - $EWY up, primarily from SK Hynix buybacks (they're just too profitable), and Samsung Foundry roughly ~10-15% price hikes. - $SKHY unveils CPO roadmap?? Apparently they're doing something with photonic interposer that links to memory, so I gotta look a bit deeper into this Probably going to be more TAM expansion, more supply chain beneficiaries (eg. lasers, PICs, packaging) off this. - $YMTC pursuing IPO next quarter following CMXT's successful IPO. The Chinese IPO market is just going brrr from Unitree to memory makers. US needs to do something similar rather than IPOing companies at trillion dollar valuations already. - Tyntek limit up there's now order visibility through 2028, given photodiode demand imbalance for photonics. Elazr GM did say the entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages... I'll probably look more at high-end PD bottlenecks next. - MS forecasts a 50% Q/Q price increase for DDR4 for Q3, and 10%+ increase for Q4 2026. (Nanya/2408, Windbond/2344, should be happy). - China reportedly delays clearance from germanium, quartz-based materials, and neodymium magnets To taiwan. So I'll probably have some fun looking into supply chains disruptions there over cup noodles. - High-end PCB drill shortage (still ongoing), Kawei (5498) said AI DCs, servers and optical communications are driving demand for PCBs, HDI and package substrates, while tungsten prices are rising. Though the world's five largest drill manufacturers are aggressively expanding capacity, supply remains far below overall market demand Just stuff I found interesting recently, obviously $MRNA stuff is too.",EWY|MRNA|SKHY|YMTC,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090374603264929981,2090374603264929981,
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2090490101260591481,2026-08-20T17:24:14.000Z,quote,"Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: ""entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages."" ""The shortage will continue to the next few years"" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.",AAOI|LITE|MTSI|SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090490101260591481,2090490101260591481,2090395700685058370
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2090510568474231045,2026-08-20T18:45:33.000Z,post,After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb,SPCX,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090510568474231045,2090510568474231045,
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2090714894874050824,2026-08-21T08:17:29.000Z,quote,"There’s a lot of viral fabricated screenshots of me going around recently. Some are annoying jokes for engagement, like text-edited posts from me citing bible verses. But some like “Innolight secures Nvidia NPO orders” or off platform promotional content are maliciously fabricated. Unfortunately I don’t have the power to prevent false images from circulating. So please make sure to double check primary sources.",,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090714894874050824,2090714894874050824,2090659817992110388
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2090735668532224224,2026-08-21T09:40:02.000Z,post,"Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.",POET|SIVE|SKHY,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090735668532224224,2090735668532224224,
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2090816483861696517,2026-08-21T15:01:09.000Z,post,Uhh Citadel? > Say emergency rate hike. More crashes/liquidations follow > No rate hike > Reaches out to buy liquidated hedge fund portfolios > buys billions of Situational Awareness holdings. > Says AI bull case is intact >markets rally > Sells AI stocks into the buying pressure I’m just stating the timeline here…,,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2090816483861696517,2090816483861696517,
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