digest: 2026-07-15 (窗口从上条semi大盘点切回多主线并进+多为外部研报/IR/管理层辟谣转述: ①光子学-CPO获Morgan Stanley背书——MS的CPO报告把激光段拆为SIVE/COHR/LITE, 她强调"$1.5B小厂SIVE被MS与两家$60B+龙头并列=验证了我的研究", 叠加Rosenblatt"中国激光厂离CPO激光尚远"放大三家西方激光龙头卡点地位; ②光模块需求上修+硅光产能双扩——Innolight投资者关系透露"1.6T未收缩、800G需求显著超此前预期"[利好AAOI/COHR/LITE], 瓶颈从EML/CW扩到光芯片/电芯片/PCB/材料全链、2026H2–2027H1缓解, 硅光比例上行利好SIVE/JBL[EML转CW], 同日Tower Semi[TSEM, 日本政府支持]扩300mm硅光/SiGe/先进封装给2028目标$3.6B营收/$1.2B净利[≈$28B市值→≈23.3x前瞻P/E]+AAOI动工≈400,000平方英尺产能[德州市政府+$20.85M州补贴, 她点明是旧闻启动]; ③NVDA延迟传闻被Jensen两度辟谣——先书面[800V/机架光互连无实质延迟/Rubin Ultra明年出货非2028/Kyber换代=架构优化非延迟/某前沿实验室把≈50%算力转回NVDA/前沿实验室占≈20%需求]后东京口头"Vera Rubin is already in production", 她借此重弹上窗口"用孤立技术细节夸大成整体延迟去做空万亿公司、逼Jensen回应"的激励结构元担忧、落点"相信NVDA时间线因其对自身供应链可见度最高"; ④存储/测试供应链双信号——AEHR财报后+36.4%/2027指引$130–150m[较2026增长160–200%]/Q4 bookings $60.7M/backlog $100.6M, 领先AI处理器晶圆级老化客户放量+"NAND全球龙头"晶圆级老化基准完成疑指SNDK[HBF]+封装级老化从Sonoma领先超大厂获动能+硅光客户放量, 她判"$130–150m不代表2027实际收入若转HVM"并提醒$116→$60→$94月内极端波动; SLC NAND据Trendforce 2026H2涨120–170%, MU 21%/Kioxia 20%份额但Winbond[≈15%]/Macronix[≈11%]/SkyHigh-Puya[≈14%]为更纯受益者; ⑤算力资本开支格局与元层面——NBIS签Reflection AI $1B+算力协议[GB300到2029]股价却-5%, 她疑对手方资金能力类比OpenAI"可能没钱执行LTA"不及META/MSFT; AAPL据The Information物色收购AI芯片公司, 她推演若经M&A加入自建AI capex阵营则"从光网络到代工皆受益且市场未预期"; Anthropic据Bloomberg最早10月IPO[去年5月$65B融资/$965B估值]她抛"$1T+估值你会买吗"开放问题[本摘要模型由Anthropic提供, 涉潜在利益关联])

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: lanfuli

reports/aleabito-60d-dashboard.html

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reports/aleabito-digests/2026-07-13.md

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