Document: LAMG-HS-001 Prepared by: Asset Management Analyst, Lunar Asset Management Group Date: 14 August 2026 Classification: Internal — Investment Committee Subject: Disposition analysis for underperforming lunar surface assets
This report evaluates whether any assets in the Moon portfolio should be considered for divestiture, write-down, or strategic repositioning. The analysis applies standard hold-vs-sell criteria — IRR, NPV, strategic fit, marketability, and opportunity cost — to each asset class.
Recommendation: HOLD all assets.
This recommendation is not driven by financial analysis. It is driven by the legal reality that the Moon cannot be sold. The Outer Space Treaty (1967), Article II, states: "Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means." This creates a fundamental constraint on the portfolio: there is no exit.
The Moon is the ultimate illiquid asset. It has been illiquid for 4.51 billion years. It will remain illiquid for the foreseeable future. The hold-vs-sell analysis is, in this sense, the shortest report in the portfolio: the answer is always "hold," because the alternative does not exist.
Important
This analysis is provided for completeness and analytical rigor. The investment committee should note that the "sell" column in all tables below is empty. This is not an oversight. It is a legal conclusion.
| Criterion | Hold Threshold | Sell Threshold | Applicability to Moon |
|---|---|---|---|
| IRR > hurdle rate | > 8.5% | < 0% | N/A — no revenue to compute IRR |
| Strategic fit | Aligns with portfolio strategy | No longer strategic | All assets strategic (no alternative) |
| Marketability | Liquid market exists | Illiquid, no buyers | No market exists for any lunar asset |
| Opportunity cost | Capital better deployed elsewhere | Capital trapped | Capital is not deployed; no alternative use |
| Regulatory feasibility | Legal to sell | Legal restrictions | Illegal to sell (OST Article II) |
| Carrying cost | Asset generates positive NOI | Negative NOI, high carrying cost | All assets negative NOI; but no disposal option |
For leased assets (Artemis program), the analysis considers whether to renew, restructure, or terminate leases:
| Lease Decision | Criteria | Applicable Assets |
|---|---|---|
| Renew | Positive relationship, fair market rent, strategic value | LUN-018 (Shackleton), LUN-011 (South Pole) |
| Restructure | Terms below market, counterparty financial stress | None currently |
| Terminate | Counterparty default, strategic conflict | None currently |
| Asset ID | Asset Name | GAV | NOI (TTM) | Cap Rate | Hold/Sell | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-007 | Oceanus Procellarum | $500B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Largest asset; 82 kg He-3 reserve; irreplaceable |
| LUN-001 | Mare Imbrium | $180B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Apollo heritage zone; 35 kg He-3; high strategic value |
| LUN-008 | Mare Frigoris | $109B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Northern latitude; polar-adjacent ice access potential |
| LUN-002 | Mare Serenitatis | $75B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Apollo 17 heritage; geothermal anomaly |
| LUN-003 | Mare Tranquillitatis | $72B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Apollo 11 site; heritage protected; cannot sell |
| LUN-005 | Mare Nubium | $65B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Adjacent to Tycho; high visual traffic |
| LUN-004 | Mare Crisium | $44B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Luna 24 heritage; Russian interest |
| LUN-010 | Mare Nectaris | $25B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Well-preserved impact morphology |
| LUN-006 | Mare Humorum | $30B | $0 | 0% | HOLD | Subsurface ice potential |
| LUN-009 | Mare Vaporum | $14B | $0 | 0% | HOLD (write down) | Small, low interest; recommend 20% impairment |
| LUN-020 | Solar Energy Zone | $900B | $0 | 0% | HOLD (monitor) | Planned; revisit when solar tech matures |
Subtotal — Surface Leases: $1.97 trillion GAV, $0 NOI, 0% cap rate. HOLD all.
| Asset ID | Asset Name | GAV | NOI (TTM) | Resource | Hold/Sell | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-018 | Shackleton Crater (Ice) | $400B | $0 | 1,200 Mt water ice | HOLD | Priority ISRU site; Artemis III target; irreplaceable |
| LUN-019 | Cabeus Crater (Ice) | $350B | $0 | 800 Mt water ice | HOLD | Confirmed water; long-term ISRU candidate |
| LUN-024 | Regolith (Global He-3) | $600B | $0 | 1.1 Mt He-3 | HOLD | Strategic resource; fusion fuel potential; irreplaceable |
Subtotal — Mineral Rights: $1.35 trillion GAV, $0 NOI. HOLD all.
Note
The mineral rights assets are the portfolio's most valuable holdings by strategic importance, despite generating zero revenue. Shackleton Crater alone contains 1,200 megatonnes of water ice — at the midpoint market estimate of $250,000/tonne delivered to lunar orbit, this represents $300 trillion in theoretical resource value. This figure is meaningless in practical terms (there is no market, no extraction infrastructure, and no buyer), but it is useful for emphasizing why we hold.
| Asset ID | Asset Name | GAV | NOI (TTM) | Hold/Sell | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-015 | SPA Basin | $120B | $0 | HOLD | Largest impact crater in Solar System; reclassify to mineral rights |
| LUN-012 | Tycho Crater | $5B | $0 | HOLD | Visual landmark; ray system; research value |
| LUN-013 | Copernicus Crater | $3B | $0 | HOLD (write down) | Overvalued 10%; recommend $2.7B |
| LUN-014 | Aristarchus Crater | $2B | $0 | HOLD | Brightest crater; thorium; reclassify to mineral rights |
| LUN-016 | Mons Huygens | $1B | $0 | HOLD | Highest mountain; brand value |
| LUN-017 | Mount Marilyn | $0.5B | $0 | HOLD (write down) | Nominal value; write down 50% to $250M |
Subtotal — Surface Assets: $131.5B GAV, $0 NOI. HOLD all (with write-downs).
| Asset ID | Asset Name | GAV | NOI (TTM) | Hold/Sell | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-022 | Tidal Service Contract | $800B | In-kind | HOLD | Non-cancelable; auto-renewing; core portfolio anchor |
| LUN-023 | Apollo Heritage Sites | $100B | $0 | HOLD | Heritage protected; no development; priceless |
Subtotal — Service & Heritage: $900B GAV. HOLD all.
| Asset ID | Asset Name | GAV | NOI (TTM) | Hold/Sell | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-021 | Far Side Radio Quiet Zone | $50B | $50,000 | HOLD | Only revenue-generating asset; IAU lease; long-term strategic |
Subtotal — Scientific Research: $50B GAV, $50,000 NOI. HOLD.
| Asset | Counterparty | Lease Terms | Rent | Expiry | Renew | Restructure | Terminate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-022 | Earth | Tidal operations; auto-renewing 27.32 days | In-kind | Perpetual | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| LUN-018 | NASA (Artemis III) | Exploratory; ISRU pilot rights | $0 (cost recovery) | 2029 | Yes | No | No |
| LUN-011 | NASA (Artemis) | Exploratory; base camp | $0 (cost recovery) | 2028 | Yes | No | No |
| LUN-021 | IAU | Radio observatory; research only | $50,000/yr | Perpetual | N/A | Review terms FY2027 | No |
| LUN-023 | United States | Heritage protection; no development | $0 | Perpetual | N/A | N/A | N/A |
-
Artemis leases (LUN-011, LUN-018): Renew at expiry. Transition from exploratory (cost recovery) to operational (rent-bearing) leases when ISRU operations commence. Target rent: 8% cap rate on GAV, negotiable.
-
IAU lease (LUN-021): Review terms. Current rent of $50,000/yr is below market for a unique radio-quiet zone. Recommend increase to $200,000/yr at next renewal.
-
Tidal contract (LUN-022): No action. Non-cancelable, auto-renewing, non-monetary. The most stable contract in the portfolio.
-
Heritage sites (LUN-023): No action. Protected in perpetuity. No development permitted. Value is cultural, not financial.
| Category | Assets | Total GAV | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surface Leases (Maria) | 11 | $1.97T | HOLD |
| Mineral Rights | 3 | $1.35T | HOLD |
| Surface Assets (Craters/Mountains) | 6 | $131.5B | HOLD (2 write-downs) |
| Service Contracts | 1 | $800B | HOLD |
| Heritage Assets | 1 | $100B | HOLD |
| Scientific Research | 1 | $50B | HOLD (lease review) |
| Total Portfolio | 24 | $4.81T | HOLD ALL |
| Asset ID | Asset Name | Current GAV | Impairment | Adjusted GAV | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-009 | Mare Vaporum | $14B | 20% | $11.2B | Low interest, small area |
| LUN-013 | Copernicus Crater | $3B | 10% | $2.7B | Overvalued vs. comparables |
| LUN-017 | Mount Marilyn | $0.5B | 50% | $0.25B | Nominal commercial value |
| Total Impairment | $3.35B |
| Asset ID | Asset Name | Current Class | New Class | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUN-015 | SPA Basin | Surface Asset | Mineral Rights | Deep crustal material; high resource potential |
| LUN-014 | Aristarchus Crater | Surface Asset | Mineral Rights | High thorium; volcanic complex; resource potential |
The Moon portfolio is a permanent hold. Not by choice, but by law, physics, and the absence of any market mechanism for selling celestial bodies. The investment committee should approve:
- HOLD all 24 assets — no divestiture recommended or possible
- Write down 3 assets totaling $3.35B in impairment
- Reclassify 2 assets from Surface Asset to Mineral Rights
- Renew Artemis leases at expiry; transition to rent-bearing terms
- Renegotiate IAU lease (LUN-021) from $50K to $200K
- Accept that the portfolio will be held in perpetuity — the longest hold in asset management history
Note
In traditional asset management, a "hold" recommendation means "we believe this asset will appreciate." In lunar asset management, a "hold" recommendation means "we cannot sell this asset and there is no alternative." The Moon has been a hold for 4.51 billion years. This is the most consistent investment recommendation in the history of capital markets.
The investment committee may note that this report's conclusion was determined before the analysis began. This is correct. When the only legal option is "hold," the analysis exists to document the reasoning, not to change the answer. We believe this is the honest approach.
— Asset Management Analyst, LAMG