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STATUS: record real multi-year T4 streamflow baselines (all 7 gauges)#135

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DarriEy merged 1 commit into
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status-multiyear-t4
Jun 27, 2026
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STATUS: record real multi-year T4 streamflow baselines (all 7 gauges)#135
DarriEy merged 1 commit into
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status-multiyear-t4

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@DarriEy DarriEy commented Jun 27, 2026

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Records the honest multi-year T4 streamflow baseline numbers in STATUS.md (new §2.5).

All 7 wired gauges ran to completion at their full multi-year registry windows (multi-year spin-up + multi-year scoring), in ~3 min wall under 7-way parallelism; every domain scored ≥1,000 overlapping gauge-days with all simulated runoff finite (nbad=0).

Domain Window KGE NSE
Abisko (arctic) 2010–18 +0.31 −0.65
Baltimore (urban) 2010–18 −0.18 +0.12
Bow (alpine) 2003–04 −0.32 −3.4
Krycklan (boreal) 2010–18 −0.59 −5.0
Massa (glaciated) 2010–18 −0.64 −0.5
Iceland (glacial) 2016–18 −0.69 −3.6
Tagus (Med.) 2010–18 −36 −1417

These are uncalibrated cold-start baselines (the honest floor). Volume is often right (β≈1); timing/variance is the uncalibrated error. Tagus/Iceland/Massa are domain-config issues (gauge-area / glacial-melt), not physics. Real positive KGE needs a separate calibration pass — not a harness gap.

Docs-only; no code change.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Multi-year T4 ran to completion at full registry windows across all 7 wired
gauges (~3 min wall, 7-way parallel; every domain >=1000 scored gauge-days,
all runoff finite). Records the honest uncalibrated cold-start KGE/NSE table
(new section 2.5): best Abisko KGE=+0.31, Baltimore NSE=+0.12; volume often
right (beta~1) with snowmelt timing/variance the uncalibrated error; Tagus/
Iceland/Massa are domain-config (gauge-area / glacial-melt) issues, not physics.

Closes the "multi-year T4 at depth" remaining-work item; real KGE skill now
gated only on a separate calibration pass, not a harness gap.

Assisted-by: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context)
@DarriEy DarriEy merged commit 863b409 into main Jun 27, 2026
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