feat(predict): adds crypto target price client for up/down markets

[ghgoodreau]

Description

Adds the CryptoTargetPriceClient — a query + hook that fetches the "price to beat" for crypto Up/Down market windows from Polymarket's undocumented crypto-price endpoint, returning the openPrice as the target line value.

The target price is immutable once a window opens, so caching is aggressive: a module-level Map<eventId, number> persists across React Query garbage-collection, and staleTime: Infinity prevents refetches. Subsequent calls for the same event return instantly from cache with zero network cost.

When the primary API fails (geo-blocked, endpoint changed, etc.), the client falls back to parsing groupItemThreshold from event outcomes. If both fail, it returns null. Fallback triggers a Logger.log warning (not error) so API breakage is detectable via Sentry breadcrumbs without triggering alerts.

The consumer passes optional pre-loaded outcomes to avoid a redundant getMarket call in the fallback path — the detail screen already has this data.

Consumed by LiveScrollingChart (PRED-778) to render the horizontal target line.

Changelog

CHANGELOG entry: null

Related issues

Fixes:

Manual testing steps

Feature: Crypto target price fetching and caching

  Scenario: Target price loads for a crypto Up/Down market
    Given the user is on a crypto Up/Down market detail screen
    And the device has network connectivity to polymarket.com

    When the detail screen renders
    Then useCryptoTargetPrice fetches the openPrice from the crypto-price API
    And the target price is available as a number for the chart target line

  Scenario: Target price is served from cache on re-entry
    Given the user previously viewed a crypto Up/Down market detail screen
    And the target price was fetched successfully

    When the user navigates back to the same market detail screen
    Then the target price is returned immediately from cache
    And no network request is made to the crypto-price API

  Scenario: Fallback to groupItemThreshold when primary API fails
    Given the user is on a crypto Up/Down market detail screen
    And the crypto-price API is unreachable or geo-blocked

    When the detail screen attempts to fetch the target price
    Then the client falls back to groupItemThreshold from event outcomes
    And a warning breadcrumb is logged for monitoring
    And the target price is still available for the chart

  Scenario: Returns null when both primary and fallback fail
    Given the user is on a crypto Up/Down market detail screen
    And the crypto-price API is unreachable
    And the event outcomes do not contain a groupItemThreshold

    When the detail screen attempts to fetch the target price
    Then the hook returns null
    And the chart renders without a target line

Screenshots/Recordings

Before

After

Pre-merge author checklist

• I've followed MetaMask Contributor Docs and MetaMask Mobile Coding Standards.
• I've completed the PR template to the best of my ability
• I've included tests if applicable
• I've documented my code using JSDoc format if applicable
• I've applied the right labels on the PR (see labeling guidelines). Not required for external contributors.

Pre-merge reviewer checklist

• I've manually tested the PR (e.g. pull and build branch, run the app, test code being changed).
• I confirm that this PR addresses all acceptance criteria described in the ticket it closes and includes the necessary testing evidence such as recordings and or screenshots.

---

Note

Medium Risk
Introduces new network fetching logic against an undocumented external endpoint plus a module-level cache, which could impact correctness/memory if parameters or event IDs are mishandled. Changes are otherwise additive and covered by unit tests for success, caching, and fallback behavior.

Overview
Adds a new cryptoTargetPrice React Query client and useCryptoTargetPrice hook to fetch the immutable “price to beat” for crypto Up/Down markets from Polymarket’s crypto-price endpoint (returning openPrice), with staleTime: Infinity.

Implements an event-scoped module cache to persist target prices beyond React Query GC, and adds a fallback path that derives the price from groupItemThreshold (using provided outcomes when available, otherwise calling PredictController.getMarket), logging a warning breadcrumb on API failure. Includes comprehensive unit tests for API success, caching, parameter encoding, and fallback/null scenarios, and wires the new query into predictQueries and hook exports.

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[github-actions]

CLA Signature Action: All authors have signed the CLA. You may need to manually re-run the blocking PR check if it doesn't pass in a few minutes.

[codecov-commenter]

Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 95.34884% with 2 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
✅ Project coverage is 82.17%. Comparing base (9f195d0) to head (509b49c).
⚠️ Report is 25 commits behind head on main.

Files with missing lines	Patch %	Lines
...components/UI/Predict/queries/cryptoTargetPrice.ts	94.87%	1 Missing and 1 partial ⚠️

Additional details and impacted files

@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##             main   #28694      +/-   ##
==========================================
+ Coverage   82.14%   82.17%   +0.02%     
==========================================
  Files        4949     4951       +2     
  Lines      130070   130305     +235     
  Branches    29004    29041      +37     
==========================================
+ Hits       106851   107081     +230     
- Misses      15923    15927       +4     
- Partials     7296     7297       +1     

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[github-actions]

🔍 Smart E2E Test Selection

• Selected E2E tags: SmokePredictions, SmokeWalletPlatform, SmokeConfirmations
• Selected Performance tags: @PerformancePredict
• Risk Level: medium
• AI Confidence: 88%

click to see 🤖 AI reasoning details

E2E Test Selection:
The changes introduce a new useCryptoTargetPrice hook and cryptoTargetPrice query within the Predictions feature (app/components/UI/Predict/). These are additive changes that add crypto target price fetching functionality for Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets, with a module-level cache and fallback to PredictController.getMarket().

SmokePredictions is the primary tag since all changes are within the Predict feature area — the new hook/query will be used in prediction market flows (crypto Up/Down markets). The SmokePredictions tag description explicitly requires also selecting SmokeWalletPlatform (Predictions is a section inside Trending tab) and SmokeConfirmations (opening/closing positions are on-chain transactions).

No shared infrastructure (navigation, modals, Engine, controllers) is modified. The changes are purely additive within the Predict module. Risk is medium because new API calls and caching logic are introduced that could affect prediction market display/behavior.

Performance Test Selection:
The new cryptoTargetPrice query introduces a new network API call (to polymarket.com/api/crypto/crypto-price) in the prediction market flow. While the implementation uses staleTime: Infinity and a module-level cache for optimization, the initial fetch adds a new network request to the prediction market rendering path. The @PerformancePredict tag covers prediction market list loading, market details, and balance display — all of which could be affected by this new API call in crypto Up/Down market scenarios.

View GitHub Actions results

[cursor]

Cursor Bugbot has reviewed your changes and found 1 potential issue.

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[cursor]

DevLogger is a no-op in production, breaking observability

Medium Severity

The code uses DevLogger.log to log the API fallback warning, but DevLogger.log only outputs to console when process.env.SDK_DEV === 'DEV' — it's completely silent in production. The PR description explicitly states the intent is for "API breakage [to be] detectable via Sentry breadcrumbs without triggering alerts," which requires Logger.log from app/util/Logger. Logger.log adds a Sentry breadcrumb in production; DevLogger.log does not. This means crypto-price API failures will go completely undetected in production.

Additional Locations (1)

• app/components/UI/Predict/queries/cryptoTargetPrice.ts#L2-L3

 

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[github-actions]

✅ E2E Fixture Validation — Schema is up to date
17 value mismatches detected (expected — fixture represents an existing user).
View details

[sonarqubecloud]

Quality Gate passed

Issues
0 New issues
0 Accepted issues

Measures
0 Security Hotspots
96.8% Coverage on New Code
0.0% Duplication on New Code

See analysis details on SonarQube Cloud