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Define point-in-time stock universe foundation - #10

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dvp2004 merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
agent/point-in-time-stock-universe-plan
Jul 30, 2026
Merged

Define point-in-time stock universe foundation#10
dvp2004 merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
agent/point-in-time-stock-universe-plan

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@dvp2004

@dvp2004 dvp2004 commented Jul 30, 2026

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Summary

  • restore the concise project research story and frozen seven-strategy benchmark ladder in README.md
  • define the minimum viable point-in-time stock-universe foundation in docs/point_in_time_stock_universe_plan.md
  • establish the terminal gate that no model training begins until the universe contract passes and is frozen

Benchmark narrative

  • SPY Buy & Hold remains the raw-return and terminal-wealth benchmark
  • SPY 3D Overlay + deep-drawdown guard + loose relief remains the best execution-realistic risk-adjusted ETF candidate built so far
  • the future stock model must attempt to beat SPY after comparable costs while also being evaluated against the overlay's drawdown and risk-adjusted profile

The README figures were checked against the frozen full-period table in docs/research_history.md; no historical strategy research was rerun and no result was changed.

Boundary

Design documentation only. This PR does not fetch data, train a model, run a backtest, create a portfolio, or add executable research behavior.

Changed files

  1. README.md
  2. docs/point_in_time_stock_universe_plan.md

Validation

  • README benchmark figures reconciled to docs/research_history.md
  • bounded Markdown structure/content check: passed
  • git diff --check: passed
  • path/credential/research-result safety scan: zero hits
  • changed manifest: exactly two files

@dvp2004
dvp2004 marked this pull request as ready for review July 30, 2026 12:54
@dvp2004
dvp2004 merged commit f5d9f04 into main Jul 30, 2026
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💡 Codex Review

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Comment thread README.md
Comment on lines +114 to +115
No new stock model will be trained until the universe contract passes or reports a transparent
coverage limitation that can be accepted in advance.

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P1 Badge Remove the coverage-limitation bypass

If the coverage audit finds an unresolved gap, this wording permits training once someone accepts the limitation, directly contradicting the plan's fail-closed rules and terminal requirement that the contract actually pass before training. That exception can allow survivorship-biased or incomplete dates into the next experiment; require a passing, frozen contract here as well, or define a formal contract version that excludes the affected period and then passes all gates.

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Comment on lines +143 to +145
- active index membership under the effective-dated ledger;
- at least 252 prior eligible trading sessions of price history;
- a valid close and volume observation at the decision cutoff;

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P1 Badge Fail qualification before filtering missing observations

When an active constituent lacks its cutoff close or volume, this predicate makes the security ineligible, while the later fail-closed rule only rejects missing prices for an already "eligible" security. An implementation following these definitions can therefore silently drop the missing-data constituent instead of failing the date, reintroducing data-availability or survivorship bias; define membership-qualified candidates first and make missing required observations an explicit qualification failure before applying liquidity and price filters.

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