California-Forest-Fires

Using synthetic data, I analyse time series data regarding forest fires in Bear County, a fictional county in California. Using past annual data, I estimate the number of acres projected to burn for the next ten years so that the Bear County Fire Department can allocate resources and plan accordingly. I choose a second-order nonparametric differencing signal model with an ARMA(1, 2) noise model and forecast that the amount of acres burned annually is projected to increase by ~50% in the coming years, suggesting an increase in fires in terms of severity and/or sheer quantity. Please refer to ProjectReport.pdf for more details. Code available in ProjectCode.Rmd for reference.