digest: 2026-07-12 (窗口从光子学-CPO抛售切到人形价值链+两条市场行为学元观察: ①她转述上月IBK Research对Boston Dynamics价值链拆解——把Atlas映射到韩国供应链[Hwashin本体臂腿/LG能源电池/Hyundai Autoever集成/Hyundai Mobis执行器], IBK量产建模2028年11.29K→2032年50k被她批"线性给S曲线建模太保守"、给出更陡自估[2028年15–20k/2029年40k–70k/2030年90k–140k, 因BD计划2028年30k产能而中国2026年底已100k], 并给单位经济[每台31执行器/2028年$1K/执行器/$134K ASP→执行器占售价23–28%]与关键指标["每31万执行器产能支撑1万台/执行器产能是量产最大信号"], BD持股结构Hyundai Motor 27.9%+Mobis 11.3%+Glovis 11.3%, 竞争格局点名US[TSLA/Figure/Apptronik/CCXI(Agility)/BD]+中国[Unitree/Fourier/AGibot/UBtech/XPEV]+欧洲[Neura/Pal/Wandercraft/Oversonic], 她落点Hwashin核心供应商+执行器产能作先行指标[CCXI自持]; ②"做空万亿美元公司"成流量玩法——孤立技术细节→夸大成整个项目延迟[NVDA/TSM为靶], 公司不回应则情绪受损/回应又因供应链保密无法细说仍被质疑, 发帖者靠impressions反复收割, 她担心激励结构不健康且越来越多人复制[呼应上窗口CPO延迟报告经历]; ③OpenAI/Sam Altman当真正的颠覆者——逆向认为惹毛每一个Mag7[如AAPL]反而说明做对了, 在自建生态而非被吸入他人生态, GOOGL/苹果/微软久违遇到搅局者; ④韩妆才是alpha——APR[278470.KS]2Y涨529%跑赢NVDA与INTC, 借Medicube梗半调侃"全球女性人口的结构性需求＞超大厂对内存/激光的需求？"; ⑤元层面——霍尔木兹海峡"今年第50次开放"据Trump, 她"看宏观看累了")

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: lanfuli

reports/aleabito-60d-dashboard.html

@@ -6435,3 +6435,8 @@ tweet_id,created_at,kind,text,tickers,source_url,conversation_id,referenced_twee
 2075611260771852590,2026-07-10T16:01:02.000Z,quote,Sk Hynix is now trading under $SKHYV! It's now up an insane 16%. I wonder how Sk Hynix over in Korea is going to react on Monday. https://t.co/Mmqdu0poVY https://t.co/6i8x9JafGy,SKHYV,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075611260771852590,2075611260771852590,2075590371531493729
 2075634064518955297,2026-07-10T17:31:39.000Z,post,"Rosenblatt on recent optical sector weakness from $AAOI to $LITE: ""Stocks in the Optical sector have traded poorly for the last 1-2 months"" due to CPO delay reports and China capacity scares. ""We think short sellers... do not actually strongly believe in the thesis."" Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August. Further, they say they plan to buy Optical stocks in 2027 for the scale up CPO opportunity. Hilarious report on laser weakness, read is very positive for $SIVEF, $COHR, and others moving forward. I've been long on CPO sector, but seems like institutions want entry points, just a bit later on.",AAOI|COHR|LITE|SIVEF,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075634064518955297,2075634064518955297,
 2075645547978084371,2026-07-10T18:17:16.000Z,post,"Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that ""flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%"". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.",AAOI|AMZN|SIVE,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075645547978084371,2075645547978084371,
+2075894311741440041,2026-07-11T10:45:46.000Z,post,"Contrarian take, but Sam Altman / OpenAI is doing something right if he's pissing off every Mag7 like $AAPL. By building their own ecosystem instead of being sucked into another. It's been awhile since $GOOGL, Apple, Microsoft, and others had some genuine disruptors.",AAPL|GOOGL,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2075894311741440041,2075894311741440041,
+2076030743655109063,2026-07-11T19:47:54.000Z,quote,"Apparently, Korean Beauty was where all the alpha is. APR (278470.KS) is up 529% over the past 2Y, wildly outperforming both $NVDA and $INTC. Every female I know talks about their ""Medicube"" stick, then buying products... where you put a whole salmon's family tree on your face for better skin. The world's female population creates a bigger structural demand than hyperscalers for memory or lasers? Should have known...",INTC|NVDA,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076030743655109063,2076030743655109063,2075882550548119877
+2076248337863639506,2026-07-12T10:12:33.000Z,post,"So there's a IBK Research report on Boston Dynamics value chains from last month. Just a summary: IBK maps these companies to Atlas as suppliers: - Hwashin (010690) / body, arms, legs - LG Energy (373220) / battery - Hyundai Autoever (307950) / integration - Hyundai Mobis (012330) / actuators As for humanoid volume ramps: They're modeling for, 11.29K in 2028, 20k 2029, 30k in 2030... 40k in 2031, and 50k in 2032. Not quite sure why IBK and other institutions are a fan of linearly modeling S-curve volume ramps... Like adding +10K per year, don't quite think it's volume ramp is going to work like that... if I had to guess it would look more like: - 15-20k 2028 - 40k-70k 2029 - 90k-140k for 2030 Since Boston Dynamics is projecting 30k capacity by 2028 (I'm sure they'd aim to get more online by 2029-2030), as China collectively is already doing 100k EOY in 2026. In terms of competitive landscape they name: - $TSLA, Figure, Apptronik, $CCXI (Agility), as US players. Then Boston Dynamics (Korea parent owned now) - Unitree, Fourier, AGibot, UBtech, $XPEV as the Chinese leaders. - Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft, Oversonic, as the EU leaders. They also did quite a lot of valuation modeling around Hyundai Mobis/Hyundai Autoever/Glovis. Regarding the BD economic ownership from 27.9% from Hyundai Motor, 11.3% from Mobis, and 11.3% from Glovis. So at least institution are valuing humanoid segments inside companies lot more now. Then from report assumptions: - 31 actuators per Atlas - $1K per actuator in 2028 - $134K Atlas ASP, Which implies actuator cost of final selling price is roughly 23–28%. Probably the more interesting statement was IBK stated that actuator capacity is biggest signal for volume ramp. eg. every 310,000 units of actuator capacity supports 10,000 more robots. So tracking actuator outputs, yields, ASP is a cleaner read on 2028-2030 ramp. I didn't have much personal takeaways, but hopefully others find it interesting, maybe around Hwashin as a core supplier or around actuator capacity as an indicator.",CCXI|TSLA|XPEV,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076248337863639506,2076248337863639506,
+2076266613675069628,2026-07-12T11:25:10.000Z,post,"Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.",NVDA|TSM,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076266613675069628,2076266613675069628,
+2076372905450188998,2026-07-12T18:27:32.000Z,post,Looks like the Strait of Hormuz is open for the 50th time this year per Trump. I’m getting tired looking at macro. https://t.co/GuYgkwC2Q8,,https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2076372905450188998,2076372905450188998,

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