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papers: honesty + citation follow-up (paper-1 supersession, reverse-import, 2022 priority) - #53

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papers: honesty + citation follow-up (paper-1 supersession, reverse-import, 2022 priority)#53
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Follow-up to #50, applying review findings.

Paper 1 (Schur Pseudo-Likelihood): dated supersession note retiring the §4–5 likelihood-vs-Schur selection contrast — a controlled 2×2 shows the poor showing is objective mismatch (judged by portfolio variance, not likelihood), not a failure of the likelihood, which also does not select ill-conditioned estimates. Flags §6 "Schur–LW" as cross-block entry shrinkage, not the structured Schur damping it's named for.

Two Sides of Schur Damping: separates the (classical) shrinkage intensity from the Schur operation (cites Schäfer & Strimmer 2005); adds the reverse-import section — a ridge/robust hedge repairs the structured Schur estimator (best-on-likelihood), shipped as SchurConditionalCovariance; establishes the 2022 priority of the allocation γ-dial (Geek Culture, Nov 21 2022).

refs.bib: correct cotton2024 title; add schafer2005, cotton2022. Docs web edition regenerated (pandoc 3.9.0.2).

Note: references SchurConditionalCovariance (#52) — merge #52 first.

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microprediction and others added 2 commits June 11, 2026 16:24
…mport, 2022 priority)

Paper 1: dated supersession note retiring the Sections 4-5 likelihood-vs-Schur SELECTION contrast (objective-mismatch artifact, not a likelihood failure; the held-out likelihood does not pick ill-conditioned estimates); flags Section 6 'Schur-LW' as cross-block ENTRY shrinkage, not the structured Schur damping.

Two Sides of Schur Damping: separate the (classical) shrinkage intensity from the Schur OPERATION (cite Schaefer & Strimmer 2005); add the reverse-import section (a ridge/robust hedge repairs the structured Schur estimator, shipped as SchurConditionalCovariance, best-on-likelihood); establish the 2022 priority of the allocation gamma-dial (Geek Culture, Nov 21 2022).

refs.bib: correct cotton2024 title; add schafer2005, cotton2022. Regenerate docs web edition (pandoc 3.9.0.2).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
…p-to-date)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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microprediction merged commit 7a651bd into main Jun 11, 2026
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microprediction deleted the papers-followup branch June 11, 2026 20:46
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