ci: stop cancelled Ring 1 runs from failing the Fly deploy

[georgi]

What broke

Run 31256065058 failed on its first poll:

attempt 1/60: docker.yml=success user-journeys.yml=cancelled
::error::user-journeys.yml (reliability-ring1) concluded 'cancelled' for 97f053e…; not deploying.

user-journeys.yml carried cancel-in-progress: true on a group keyed by ref, so two merges landing on main within three minutes (97f053e at 11:47, 8cdf606 at 11:50) cancelled the earlier commit's reliability-ring1 run. fly-deploy.yml's gate reads a per-commit conclusion and treats cancelled as a hard failure — so a commit that was merely superseded produced a red deploy. The same pattern shows up repeatedly in the run history (four consecutive cancellations on 2026-08-07).

Changes

• user-journeys.yml — don't cancel superseded runs on main, using the same expression docker.yml already uses. Every main commit's Ring 1 now reaches a conclusion of its own, which is exactly what the gate polls for. PR branches and tags still cancel.
• fly-deploy.yml — when an upstream is red or cancelled for a commit main has already moved past, skip the deploy instead of failing it. The gate emits a deploy output that deploy's if requires, so a superseded commit ends green-and-skipped rather than red, and the newer commit's own run does the releasing.
• Fold timed_out into the terminal conclusions the gate reacts to, instead of polling on until the 65-minute job timeout.
• .github/workflows/README.md — record why Ring 1 doesn't cancel on main, since that's the non-obvious coupling.

Verification

Both workflow files parse. The gate script was extracted and exercised against a stubbed gh across four cases:

docker	journeys	commit is tip of main	result
success	success	yes	exit 0, deploy=true
success	cancelled	no	exit 0, deploy=false, notice
success	cancelled	yes	exit 1, error (unchanged)
failure	success	yes	exit 1, error (unchanged)

A genuinely failing Ring 1 on the tip of main still blocks the deploy — only the superseded case changes.

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https://claude.ai/code/session_01LGkCEj3kPc4QMCxBPGo95p

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