Austin Fire Resource Allocation Analysis

Analyzes fire incident patterns across Austin Fire Department's 711 response areas by housing typology, urban classification, building age, and zoning. Uses AFD incident data (2022-2024), Census demographics, NFIRS cause codes, and Austin zoning districts.

For policy background (single-stair building code, HOME initiative) and glossary, see docs/RESEARCH_CONTEXT.md.

Quick Start

# Create virtual environment
python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate

# Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Download data (~100MB from public APIs)
python 01_download_data.py

# Run the pipeline
python 02_clean_incidents.py    # Clean & classify incidents
python 03_create_crosswalk.py   # Census tract → response area mapping + zoning
python 04_analysis.py           # Calculate rates & statistical tests
python 05_visualize.py          # Generate maps & charts

# Optional: NFIRS cause analysis (requires manual data download)
python 06_nfirs_cause_analysis.py

Data Setup

Data files are not included in this repository due to size. Run 01_download_data.py to fetch them from public APIs.

Automatic Download

01_download_data.py downloads:

• AFD fire incidents (2022-2024) from Austin Open Data Portal
• AFD response area boundaries from ArcGIS FeatureServer
• Fire station locations from ArcGIS FeatureServer
• Austin zoning districts from ArcGIS FeatureServer (~22k polygons, paginated)
• Census population (B01003), housing units (B25024), year built (B25034)
• Census tract boundaries (TIGER/Line 2023)

NFIRS Data (optional)

The NFIRS cause analysis (06_nfirs_cause_analysis.py) requires a manual download:

1. Visit the USFA NFIRS Data Center
2. Download the annual Public Data Release files (2018-2021)
3. Extract to raw_data/nfirs/YYYY/ directories

Note on Historical Data

The AFD Fire Incidents 2018-2021 dataset was removed from the Austin Open Data Portal. This analysis uses 2022-2024 data only. For historical data, file a public records request with AFD.

Directory Structure

raw_data/
├── afd_incidents_2022_2024.csv    # AFD incidents
├── afd_response_areas.geojson     # 711 response area boundaries
├── zoning.geojson                 # Austin zoning districts
├── fire_stations.geojson          # Station locations
├── census_population.csv          # B01003
├── census_housing.csv             # B25024
├── census_year_built.csv          # B25034
├── tl_2023_48_tract.zip           # TIGER/Line tract boundaries
└── nfirs/                         # Manual download (optional)
    └── YYYY/
        ├── basicincident.txt
        ├── fireincident.txt
        └── structurefire.txt

Pipeline Scripts

Script	Input	Output	Description
01_download_data.py	Public APIs	raw_data/*	Fetches all data; handles ArcGIS pagination for large datasets
02_clean_incidents.py	raw_data/afd_incidents_2022_2024.csv	processed_data/incidents_clean.csv	Parses dates, classifies incident types (structure, vehicle, outdoor, trash)
03_create_crosswalk.py	raw_data/*	processed_data/tract_to_response_area_crosswalk.csv, response_area_demographics.csv, response_areas_with_demographics.geojson	Area-weighted census allocation + zoning height mapping
04_analysis.py	processed_data/*	outputs/summary_*.csv, outputs/statistical_tests.txt	Per-capita rates, t-tests, ANOVA, correlations
05_visualize.py	processed_data/*	outputs/map_*.html, outputs/chart_*.png	Interactive Folium maps + matplotlib charts
06_nfirs_cause_analysis.py	raw_data/nfirs/*	outputs/cause_*.csv, outputs/chart_cause_*.png	Cause/heat source/origin analysis by housing type

Data Sources

Data	Source
Fire Incidents (2022-2024)	Austin Open Data Portal
Response Area Boundaries	City of Austin ArcGIS
Fire Station Locations	City of Austin ArcGIS
Zoning Districts	City of Austin ArcGIS
Population by Tract	Census ACS 5-Year (B01003)
Housing Units by Type	Census ACS 5-Year (B25024)
Year Structure Built	Census ACS 5-Year (B25034)
Census Tract Boundaries	TIGER/Line Shapefiles
NFIRS Structure Fires	USFA NFIRS Data Center (manual download)

Key Outputs

Summary Data

• outputs/summary_by_urban_class.csv - Incident rates by urban/suburban classification
• outputs/summary_by_housing_type.csv - Incident rates by housing typology
• outputs/summary_by_building_age.csv - Incident rates by building age
• outputs/summary_by_incident_type.csv - Incident counts by category
• outputs/statistical_tests.txt - T-tests and ANOVA results
• outputs/station_coverage.csv - Fire station coverage by urban class

NFIRS Cause Analysis

• outputs/cause_by_housing_type.csv - Cause of ignition by housing type
• outputs/heat_source_by_housing.csv - Heat source breakdown by housing type
• outputs/area_origin_by_housing.csv - Area of origin by housing type
• outputs/sprinkler_by_housing.csv - Sprinkler presence by housing type

Visualizations

• outputs/map_incidents_per_capita.html - Incident rates choropleth
• outputs/map_building_age.html - Building age distribution
• outputs/map_fire_stations.html - Fire station locations
• outputs/map_housing_typology.html - Housing type distribution
• outputs/map_urban_classification.html - Urban/suburban classification
• outputs/chart_urban_comparison.png - Incident rates by urban class
• outputs/chart_cause_comparison.png - NFIRS cause comparison (MF vs SF)
• outputs/chart_heat_source_comparison.png - Heat source comparison
• outputs/REPORT_Austin_Fire_Analysis.md - Full analysis report

Response Area Demographics Data Dictionary

processed_data/response_area_demographics.csv — per-response-area demographics (711 rows).

Census-derived (area-weighted from tract-level ACS data)

Column	Description
response_area_id	AFD response area identifier
population	Estimated population
total_units	Total housing units
single_family	Detached + attached single-family units
duplex	2-unit buildings
small_multifamily	3-19 unit buildings
large_multifamily	20+ unit buildings
multifamily	All multifamily combined
mobile_other	Mobile homes and other
yb_total	Units with known year built
built_2010_plus	Units built 2010 or later
built_1970_2009	Units built 1970-2009
built_pre_1970	Units built before 1970
pct_*	Percentage versions of the above counts

Zoning-derived (area-weighted from Austin zoning districts)

Column	Description
avg_max_stories	Area-weighted average max stories allowed by zoning
avg_max_height_ft	Area-weighted average max building height (ft) allowed by zoning
dominant_zone	Most common zoning code by area (e.g. SF-3, CS, MF-4)
pct_tall_zoning	% of area zoned for 4+ stories

Zoning coverage: 508 of 711 response areas (71%). The 203 areas without zoning data are in Austin's ETJ where city zoning does not apply.

Zoning-to-height mapping: Each Austin BASE_ZONE code is mapped to a max height (ft) and estimated max stories based on the Land Development Code. The mapping is defined in ZONING_HEIGHT_MAP in 03_create_crosswalk.py. Vertical mixed-use overlays (-V suffix) bump the minimum to 6 stories.

Validation: Higher multifamily % correlates with higher zoning-permitted stories (r=positive). CBD zones show highest avg stories (~21), SF zones lowest (~2-3).

Census-estimated height (fallback for ETJ areas)

Column	Description
census_est_stories	Weighted average stories inferred from B25024 housing type mix
height_data_source	'zoning', 'census_estimate', or 'none'
height_category	'low_rise' (<=2.5), 'mid_rise' (2.5-5), 'high_rise' (>5)
density_category	'low_density' (<20% MF), 'medium_density' (20-50%), 'high_density' (>50%)

Project Structure

fire-incident-analysis/
├── 01_download_data.py          # Fetch data from APIs
├── 02_clean_incidents.py        # Clean & classify incidents
├── 03_create_crosswalk.py       # Census → response area mapping + zoning
├── 04_analysis.py               # Calculate rates & run tests
├── 05_visualize.py              # Generate maps & charts
├── 06_nfirs_cause_analysis.py   # NFIRS cause code & building height analysis
├── quick_start.py               # Convenience script
├── run_all.py                   # Run full pipeline
├── raw_data/                    # Downloaded data (gitignored)
├── processed_data/              # Cleaned/merged data (gitignored)
├── outputs/                     # Results & visualizations (gitignored)
├── docs/                        # Research context, design docs
│   ├── RESEARCH_CONTEXT.md      # Policy background, glossary
│   └── plans/                   # Analysis design documents
├── requirements.txt             # Python dependencies
└── README.md                    # This file