Add CMS-HCC E2E risk-score validation test and CI (#1294)

[gopidaxhealthcaresolutions]

Closes #1294

Adds a CMS-HCC end-to-end risk-score validation test plus a CI workflow that runs it whenever the HCC marts (or their coefficient seeds) change.

What it validates

Two golden-patient dbt unit tests on cms_hcc__patient_risk_scores_monthly_by_factor_type — the model where every numeric transformation in the mart happens. They pin known inputs to hand-computed expected scores covering the full arithmetic:

• raw coefficient summation
• the v24/v28 transition blend weighting
• normalization (raw / normalization_factor)
• the payment adjustment (× (1 − ma_coding_pattern_adjustment))
• the blend pivot into separate v24_risk_score / v28_risk_score columns
• member-month weighting

Patient A exercises a pre-transition payment year (V24 only, with the normalization factor and coding-pattern adjustment driven by the adjustment_rates seed). Patient B exercises the 2024 transition year (V24 67% / V28 33% blend).

Expected values are exact 3-decimal results chosen to avoid half-way rounding boundaries so the tests are stable across warehouses.

Methodology validated against the docs

The fixtures match the Tuva CMS-HCCs mart docs and risk-adjustment knowledge page:

• Transition schedule — PY2024 = 67% V24 / 33% V28, PY2025 = 33% / 67%, PY2026+ = 100% V28.
• Payment formula — (raw_risk_score / normalization_factor) × (1 − 0.059), i.e. the documented worked example (0.754 / 1.015) × (1 − 0.059) = 0.699. Patient B asserts this same arithmetic for the blended path.

CI

.github/workflows/cms_hcc_e2e_validation.yml:

• Triggers on pull_request to main when models/data_marts/cms_hcc/** or seeds/value_sets/cms_hcc/** change (plus manual workflow_dispatch).
• Runs the cms_hcc-tagged unit tests on a local DuckDB database — no warehouse credentials, so it also runs on fork PRs.

The existing cms_hcc__int_members unit test is tagged cms_hcc so it runs in the same workflow.

Testing

All three cms_hcc-tagged unit tests pass locally on DuckDB via the exact CI selector (dbt test --select "tag:cms_hcc,test_type:unit").

Notes for reviewers

• The model currently hardcodes the 2024–2027 normalization factors and coding-pattern adjustment in CASE expressions (cms_hcc__patient_risk_scores_monthly_by_factor_type.sql, with a TODO: Uncomment when seed is updated). Patient B asserts against those hardcoded transition-year values; when the seed-driven refactor lands, those expectations may need a refresh.
• A natural follow-up (per the issue discussion) is validating against the official CMS reference output once that reference data is available.

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